Cheat the game, but never juice it

棒球統計專家David Gassko在對 The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball的書評中，提到該書對有關Barry Bonds使用禁藥造成的影響做的統計研究：Bonds的成績以三週為週期變化，正好是他使用THG （一種專門設計來逃過藥檢的Steroid）這種Steroid的週期，推測若是他不使用的話，大概目前生涯全壘打數，約只有目前的一半。很多人對Bonds的禁藥醜聞並不清楚，連可說是今年最好的棒球指南中有關Bonds的「神魔一體」一文中，也只是含糊帶過。Bonds有使用Steroid已經是事實，甚至今年1月還被驗出使用sympathomimetic類的藥，剩下來的是是否有偽證罪的問題。

Zumsteg is especially hard on Barry Bonds, though not unfairly so. He shows some spectacular statistical evidence of Bonds’ steroid use, using research from the Game of Shadows, whose authors wrote that Bonds used steroids in three-week cycles, and complained of feeling awful in the week he took off after each cycle.

Looking at game-by-game data, Zumsteg finds those cycles with the help of Indians statistical analyst Keith Woolner. Starting with the first day of each season in which Bonds used steroids according to Game of Shadows, Bonds showed clear patterns of three weeks of great play followed by a huge fall-off in power followed by another three weeks of hot hitting, and so forth. In seasons prior to that, Bonds showed no patterns like this.

Basically, Zumsteg finds that if Bonds had not been using steroids, he would have hit half as many home runs, giving him a still-impressive career total, but leaving him well behind Hank Aaron.


Bonds不吃藥也會是偉大球員，但是不是過了35歲變身的球員，頗令人懷疑。